By Peter Levine

May 2, 2018

Americans born between 1985 and 2004, known as “millennials,” are numerous enough that their generation will dominate the electorate for decades to come. Political commentators often depict millennials as egalitarian, activist, and relatively well-educated, and thus poised to support a middle-class economic agenda. But that portrait describes just a minority of the generation. In truth, many millennials are far from reaching the middle class, are skeptical about government, and are disengaged as citizens.

Take, for example, a common policy proposal aimed at younger voters — easing the burden of student debt. This proposal is relevant only to a minority of millennials: Just 42 percent of millennials say that they or anyone in their household holds any student debt. Meanwhile, 19 percent of millennials are parents, and 40 percent of the generation have never taken a college course. For many, the cost of daycare, the availability of a GED program, or the minimum wage may be more pressing than college loans.

To appeal to millennials, a middle-class economic agenda will have to take seriously their diverse economic circumstances, their reluctance to place themselves in the middle class, and (for many) their skepticism about government and their own engagement.

Watching millennials drop out of the middle class

While close to half of American adults typically place themselves in the middle class, this share is shrinking. The proportion that self-identified as middle class peaked in 1991 at 49.1 percent, but it had fallen to 41 percent by 2016. The largest group, 47 percent, preferred to place themselves in the “working class.” Just 2.7 percent identified as “upper class,” and 9 percent as “lower class.”

The decline in the proportion of Americans who see themselves as middle class has been driven entirely by declines among the younger generations. Baby boomers have gone through life with between 40 percent and 50 percent consistently seeing themselves as middle class, with little sign of decline since 1972. But by 2016, data from NORC’s General Social Survey shows that just one-third of millennials identified themselves as middle class.

Millennials first entered the electorate in significant numbers in 2008, and, despite the recession, a majority felt they were middle class that year. But the proportion who identified with the middle class slipped a bit in 2009 and then slumped dramatically in 2010, not yet to recover.

A similar pattern affected members of Generation X — the people born in the preceding two decades. A majority of Gen X-ers entered adulthood during the 1980s thinking that they were middle class, but that proportion had slipped below 50 percent by 1990 and is now below 40 percent.

Millennials’ political views

Surveys of millennials’ political views present a complex picture. Many believe that the economy lacks opportunity, but are skeptical about government intervention to fix it. Prior to the 2016 election, CIRCLE — a part of the Tisch College of Civic Life at Tufts University — surveyed millennials on questions related to economic policy. Only 17 percent of millennials felt that the “economic system in this country is basically fair to all Americans,” and two-thirds thought that “the richest one percent of Americans have far too much political power.” These responses indicate an openness to economic reform.

At the same time, many respondents endorsed values of self-reliance and were skeptical about welfare. Almost half of millennials — 49 percent — felt that “poor people [had] become too dependent on government assistance programs.” Just 37 percent agreed with a premise of activist government: that “hard work doesn’t generally bring success — it’s more a matter of luck and connections.” These responses indicate the generation has middle-class values, but lacks widespread support for activist government.

Of course, millennials disagreed about these questions and all the others we asked: they are a diverse group, reflecting the full range of political ideologies and perspectives in America. Recently, my CIRCLE colleagues proposed a taxonomy based on the same survey data. They suggested two dimensions. One involves policy issues, extending from egalitarian to libertarian. The other dimension involves respondents’ attitudes toward civic engagement: whether they believe that people can make a difference by taking action — either with or without institutions. Four groupings resulted.

The largest group of millennials — 39 percent — were classified as “Activist Egalitarians.” These tend to see racial and economic justice as problems and believe that citizens can address social problems. They are civically engaged, with high turnout, and they tilted strongly to the Democratic presidential ticket in 2016. They are economically diverse, but a majority have college educations. Whether or not they are in the middle class, they seem most amenable to a middle-class economic agenda.

The second largest group are “Participatory Libertarians,” who make up 29 percent of millennials. These young Americans generally believe that society is already fair. They vote but are not politically engaged in other ways, and they split their votes in 2016. A majority have college educations and good incomes. They may feel safely in the middle class and demonstrate some skepticism about activist government.

A smaller group, 8 percent, were classified as “Disempowered Egalitarians.” They believe that inequality is a problem but report low likelihood of voting and poor knowledge of civics and politics. Many disparage their own contributions and knowledge. They have relatively low educational attainment and incomes. They may be open to a middle-class economic agenda in principle, but will be challenging to mobilize.

Five percent of millennials are “Alienated Libertarians” who believe that society is already fair and do not see the need for civic participation. They report little exposure to civic opportunities in their own lives. They prioritize economic prosperity.

The remaining 18 percent are the “Lost and Disengaged.” These millennials report few opinions at all about the issues on the survey, exhibit low awareness of politics, and are unlikely to vote.

Implications for the economic agenda

Some millennials are poised to support an agenda framed as governmental support for the middle class. They see themselves as belonging to the middle class or close to it, have conventional middle-class circumstances, and are positive about government. They also vote.

But less than half of millennials meet all these criteria. A majority do not view themselves as part of the middle class. Many have economic needs that are conventionally associated with the working class, are skeptical about government activism, and don’t think there’s much point to their own engagement.

Millennials and the next generation after them will already represent 40 percent of eligible voters in 2020, and they will dominate politics for much of this century. Generations of voters who largely place themselves below the middle class will have significant implications for our nation’s economic agenda. This means that the agenda must be framed more as creating paths into the middle class than as helping people who are already there. Perhaps more significant is the risk that they will see a middle class agenda as irrelevant, simply because they can’t reach the middle class in the first place.

About the author:

Peter Levine is the Associate Dean for Research and Lincoln Filene Professor of Citizenship & Public Affairs in Tufts University’s Jonathan Tisch College of Civic Life. His most recent book is We Are the Ones We Have Been Waiting For: The Promise of Civic Renewal in America.